I’ve seen several people linking to Andrew Gelman’s analysis of voting in the election, which is generally good and interesting. I would like to quibble about one thing he says, though. After noting that young voters overwhelmingly went for Obama, he says:
But there was no massive turnout among young voters. According to the exit polls, 18% of the voters this time were under 30, as compared to 17% of voters in 2004. (By comparison, 22% of voting-age Americans are under 30.)
This is a little harsh on younger voters. Using his numbers and a bit of algebra, the turnout among young voters was 81.8% of the overall turnout, whatever that turns out to be. This is apparently a matter of some debate, but is expected to be at least 60%.
If this year’s turnout matches the 60.3% of 2004, that would mean that 49.3% of the under-30 cohort voted, which would match the 2004 figure in this PDF report, which was the highest since 1992. If the turnout reaches 62.5%, as some think it will, then the under-30 cohort will have come out at a rate of 51.1%, which is either the second or third highest rate since the voting age was lowered to 18.
Granted, that still puts young voter turnout below the overall average. But it hardly counts as slacking. It may not be an overwhelming wave, but it’s also very likely true that young voters turned out in the highest numbers since at least 1992.
So give the kids some credit.
(It would be interesting to see this broken down more, to compare the 18-21 year cohort this year with the 22-25 and 26-29 groups (who were 18-21 in 2004 and 2000, respectively). That would really tell you if this year’s college students were particularly energized, as some have claimed. I don’t know where you’d get those numbers, though.)
Keep in mind that young people are probably under-counted in exit polls. Because so many are away at college or in the military, they have a disproportionately high percentage of absentee ballots.
Nice title